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The 2017 Final Word from our Hudson Advisors
5 December 2017

Phillip McGann

What have I learned this year?

Having traveled to China this year I have learned that the Middle Kingdom is vastly richer and more dynamic than we all think and will (continue) to alter our world even more than many people realize into the future 

Last Year’s Prediction 

A much improved share market return locally. This may well come from a combination of tailwinds from overseas market movements and a return of some confidence to the local market as many investors come to realize current prices offer upside for the longer term. 

Result:  The market return was good particularly over the past two months as the market broke out of a narrow trading range to the upside. 

Prediction for Next Year 

More improvement in local share prices as the re-rating of the Australian market gathers pace. 

Final Word for 2017 

It has been a year of both consolidation and progress for a lot of my personal Hudson Members.  I thank you all for the interactions over the year and allowing me to be a part of your (financial) lives.  I wish all of you a wonderful and safe Christmas break with your families and friends and a successful 2018.  Many happy returns!

Michal Park

What have I learned this year?

  • Just how small, and lacking diversity, the Australian sharemarket really is when compared to global markets.  60% of our market is made up of banks and resource stocks which has really impacted on our returns.
  • That there are still way too many Hudson members around who take an apathetic approach to their superannuation. Inappropriate investment could be very costly. 
  • That sometimes the best decision is not the best financial decision.
  • That between knee surgery, cortisone injections in a shoulder and comparing injuries with colleagues this year, I really can’t avoid aging!

Last Year’s Prediction 

We have been living in the shadow of the GFC for the last 8 years.  I predict that investors will start to shrug off bad news and instead start to embrace it and the opportunities it may bring – generally the bark is worse than the bite.

With the contraction in the economy, I also predict the RBA will cut interest rates again – however, it is unlikely these will be passed on by banks.  If they are, it will be purely to bring them back to status quo given they are raising rates independently now.

I know many of my Hudson members are feeling more confident now and looking for opportunities, but have been hampered by financial institution restrictions.  Whilst RBA have not cut rates as I predicted, they have kept rates on hold now since August 2016, given there has certainly been no cause to hike them.

Prediction for next year

  • Rates in Australia will stay on hold or be cut on the back of a sluggish economy, zero wages growth and weakening consumer demand.
  • International growth will continue due to strengthening economies, lower unemployment and greater consumer confidence.

Final Word for 2017

I think taking time out to smell the roses is a good final note.  And to try and be more engaged in the present moment.  I look back at photos of my children and realise how much time I spend fretting about potential future disasters when I really should be soaking up the here and now. So therein lies my new years resolution!  Perhaps you should make it yours too. Have a safe and sound Christmas, and here’s to 2018.

Ivan Fletcher

What have I learned this year?

Where there is change there is opportunity.  Whilst there were several changes coming through around 30 June 2017 on the superannuation front, it gave cause for many Hudson members to check in on their own circumstances for potential impact and plausible strategies.  Anything that causes us to take some time out to focus  on how we are travelling generally leads to positive outcomes.

Last Year’s Prediction

“We may see some decline in the AUD/USD currency measure if the USA marches on somewhere in the vein of the current Trump rhetoric. We may also see the banks reviewing lending rates separate of RBA decisions.”

One  Year later, the currency AUD/USD is about the same, but the banks have certainly been very active on interest rates this year whilst the RBA has not moved (refer my Hudson Report article in October 2017).

Prediction for Next Year

Trump led USA tax cuts will get through and this will keep the fuel up to the worlds largest economy.  If not Trump will be seen as a failure by all and confidence in general (including the markets) would decline.   Pardon the pun but this was his “trump card” for making America Great again and it is his mission to get it done.  I also suspect that there could be a round of Australians breaching the new and reduced $25,000 Concessional Contribution CAP (because they have not altered path from the $35,000 CAP in 2016/17).  Don’t let this be you.  

Final word for 2017

It seems to have been one of the fastest years on record.  Remember to celebrate as often as you can find a reason to. To all Hudson members I wish you a safe and happy time with your loved ones. As always but especially this time of year, if you see someone without a smile, give them one of yours.

Kris Wrenn 

What have I learned this Year ?

That any market can defy all expectation. The US share market regained it’s pre-GFC peak around June 2013. By the time Trump came into office it was over 30% higher. Who would have believed that a year later their market would have risen nearly 25% more? Certainly not the majority of SMSF holders in Australia who continue to hold only Australian shares and limit their diversification. Investor confidence can be a powerful force but let’s hope Trump can deliver.

Last Year’s Prediction

 “Volatility and lots of it”

Outcome – Not as much as I thought perhaps but the Aussie market did bounce between around 5,600 and 6,000 several times since Xmas last year.

Prediction for Next Year

I’m hoping for a marked acceleration in Australia’s mining sector off the back of global economic growth and rising commodity prices.

Final word for 2017

Success isn’t measured by how much money you make but how happy you wake up each day. Making money allows us to achieve some of life’s dreams but at the end of each year, it’s the memories made with family and friends that we remember the most. Merry Christmas.





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